{"id":32712,"date":"2021-10-20T13:16:26","date_gmt":"2021-10-20T12:16:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/digileaders.com\/?p=32712"},"modified":"2022-09-07T16:45:01","modified_gmt":"2022-09-07T15:45:01","slug":"reverting-to-a-magical-sustainable-world-through-futuring-digital-pathways","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/digileaders.com\/reverting-to-a-magical-sustainable-world-through-futuring-digital-pathways\/","title":{"rendered":"Reverting to a magical sustainable world through futuring digital pathways"},"content":{"rendered":"

Now is the time to insist on a desirable future as we emerge from lockdown. In whichever capacity we work, how do we build a new normal? I\u2019m sure you\u2019ve heard it already \u2013 the old normal simply wasn\u2019t working \u2013 in all sorts of ways.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2018Futuring\u2019 is a sophisticated strategic planning tool that has been used by big players such as the military, Royal Dutch Shell, the South African, English and Welsh Governments, the UN, and in policy areas from defence to economics. Scott et al. (2012) describe it as a robust \u201ctool for bringing stakeholders into agreement over highly complex \u2026 problems\u201d.<\/p>\n

Futuring is not for the faint-hearted. I recommend you gird your loins before taking part.<\/p>\n

Apparently, I am a tough old lion \u2013 my son occasionally refers to me as \u201cAslan\u201d since he once, from his position sheltering behind me, witnessed me challenge some bad behaviour with a roof-raising roar. I have battled alone through extreme family circumstance, and seen much of the world from sailing ships with kamikaze captains. Nothing much fazes me.<\/p>\n

I went into my futuring training totally unprepared for the emotional and intellectual beating I was about to experience. No doubt the military, a prolific user of futuring, considers character building a secondary benefit of it.<\/p>\n

Futuring is not a\u00a0set of traditional inward-facing planning methods which cause people like me to consider stapling one\u2019s fingers together to relieve the boredom. It is a mind-bending creative exercise.<\/p>\n

The method provides a means to move away from incremental improvement of current performance and existing rules. This is about experimentation and innovation; traits described by Waddle (2016) that lead to radical systemic shift. It also requires a diverse and committed set of stakeholders to take part (including specialist incumbents who might not live in the future but who could help resolve dilemmas now). I believe we must include\u00a0digital<\/strong>\u00a0people in these exercises so that they will gain the context for the\u00a0digital services<\/strong>\u00a0that will emerge from it, and very importantly, so that they can contribute a set mind-bending innovative possibilities for the plan.<\/p>\n

My preferred futuring method is \u2018scenario thinking\u2019 and is excellently explained and illustrated in \u201cWhat if? The art of scenario thinking for nonprofits\u201d by the Global Business Network (Scearce, D. and Fulton, K., 2004). Scenario thinking allows participants to imagine and rehearse multiple potential futures, or \u2018scenarios\u2019, which emerge from combining external driving forces.<\/p>\n

We cannot see into the future but we can identify external driving forces \u2013 emerging or dominant trends, across technology, society, economics, law, the environment and politics. For example, we might consider increasing corporate power over governments a threatening trend. If we combine trends in different ways, we can imagine how each of a set of different futures, might look depending on how the trends interact. This enables us to mitigate, today, undesirable elements of a nasty looking future and act, now, to nourish those elements of a future in which we might all thrive.<\/p>\n

We can apply futuring to most projects, but it works best for transformation projects and endeavours that:<\/p>\n